The year has been mixed for broadcasters. The family sitcom was reinvigorated with ABC's Modern Family, musical comedy Glee became ratings gold for Fox, and CBS' Undercover Boss was the biggest new reality hit in years.
Live events such as NFL football, the Olympics and awards shows posted record ratings or big gains from recent years.
But several long-running drama series dropped sharply, including CSI (-18%), Desperate Housewives (-12%) and 24 (-15% in its final season), and some fell to record lows. Trends:
•Networks up. Overall, the four major broadcast networks are up 2%. CBS will again win among all viewers; Fox keeps its crown among adults ages 18 to 49, the top priority for advertisers. Only ABC lost viewers; NBC's Olympics offset Jay Leno's prime-time failure. Many cable channels climbed, but as a group, "cable hasn't had as spectacular growth as in other years," says Horizon Media analyst Brad Adgate.
•DVRs grow. Digital video recorders, now in 36% of homes, continued to fuel viewership, as people who have them tend to watch more TV. Among younger viewers, just 54% of all programming is seen live, compared with 58% last season, says ABC researcher Larry Hyams.
•Spring slump. Since the Olympics, a drop-off in prime-time TV usage, after years of steady gains, has given networks and ad buyers cause for concern. While overall TV usage is down 2.6%, viewership among women 18-34 is down nearly 6% compared with the same period last year, affecting broadcast networks more than cable.
Nielsen blames the decline on several factors, including less original programming compared with last year (when the February sweeps was pushed to March), holidays that bunched together and better weather.
Then there's the improving economy, which has sparked box-office gains and renewed restaurant spending, says senior VP Pat McDonough.
"Internet use was either flat or a little down in March, and that tells us that people are not sitting at home," she says. Last season, "even people who had jobs were worried about the economy and wanted to stay home."
Though the drop is moderating, it could result in the first full season of reduced viewing in recent history. Says Adgate: "It can't go up forever."
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