{alltv} Katie Couric nears talk show deal

LOS ANGELES - Disney/ABC is expected to announce as soon as Monday that Katie Couric will host a new talk show which they will syndicate beginning in September 2012, while also contributing to ABC News programs.

The announcement will confirm widespread speculation in the media since NBC and CBS bowed out of the bidding for Couric's services after her stint on the "CBS Evening News" ended last month.

Couric's deal is expected to give her an ownership stake in her daytime show, which will be executive produced by former NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Zucker.

Her role at ABC News will be as part of the team, not necessarily a featured player on any one newscast. And the news division's financial investment in the Couric deal, say sources, is minimal.

However, this appears to be a major roll of the dice by Disney/ABC, which in recent years has not been particularly active in the high-risk domestic syndication business. While it has long running shows like "Live With Regis and Kelly," it has not successfully launched a major show in some time.

The cost to produce a talk show like Couric's is estimated at over $1 million a week, for a run of about 39 weeks a year. The show would be expected to repeat episodes the rest of the year, which is why it can't be too heavy on news, and must have feature and entertainment content as well.

It will also cost Disney/ABC millions to sell, launch and market. An estimate of over $25 million is probably conservative, and even with Couric, it is not guaranteed to succeed.

"It's no slam-dunk she's going to be a success," says Brad Adgate of Horizon Media. "You cannot expect her despite her fame or recognition to automatically succeed. Jane Pauley tried a talk show and that really didn't pan out to her. She certainly was a forerunner to Katie Couric, so there's no guarantee. Other famous people that have tired to do talk shows have not come out with the ratings expectations that they had hoped for."

But Couric has a lot going for her. She is known for her skill in the interview chair, as evidenced by a successful 15-year run on "Today," and the hard news credibility she further established at CBS News also make her an attractive daytime property.

Adgate says one positive is that the ABC owned stations are considered very strong in their markets. Beyond that ABC/Disney will have to line up stations and station groups to partner in the launch and agree to carry the new show, hopefully also in the afternoon.

Couric's payday from Disney-ABC is said to be between $5 million to $10 million a year on a two-year deal with potential upgrades depending on the show's profitability. After two years stations can opt out, or if it is going well sign longer term agreements for more money, which would help increase Couric and Zucker's remuneration.

ABC will have to carve out space on its owned stations for Couric in time for a targeted fall 2012 launch. Sources say ABC is eyeing an afternoon slot for Couric and would likely give an hour back to the stations in the hopes that they'll use it to pick up Couric's show. The network has already canceled two daytime soaps, "One Life to Live" and "All My Children," and will replace them with lifestyle shows this fall.

"General Hospital" airs on ABC at 3 p.m. in most markets and the network is not likely to cancel what will be its last remaining soap opera.

Couric's daytime show has been described by sources as interview-centric with the kind of human-interest stories Couric excelled at telling at "Today."

A perch at ABC News allows Couric to stay on television, and front and center in the minds of viewers, while she readies her talk show.

ABC's offer is also said to include primetime specials.